A machine learning approach to predict mortality due to immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.

Background: Mortality due to immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP) remains significant. Predicting mortality risk may potentially help individualize treatment. The French Thrombotic Microangiopathy (TMA) Reference Score has not been externally validated in the United States. Recent advances in machine learning technology can help analyze large numbers of variables with complex interactions for the development of prediction models. Objectives: To validate the French TMA Reference Score in the United States Thrombotic Microangiopathy (USTMA) iTTP database and subsequently develop a novel mortality prediction tool, the USTMA TTP Mortality Index. Methods: We analyzed variables available at the time of initial presentation, including demographics, symptoms, and laboratory findings. We developed our model using gradient boosting machine, a machine learning ensemble method based on classification trees, implemented in the R package gbm. Results: In our cohort (n = 419), the French score predicted mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.63 (95% CI: 0.50-0.77), sensitivity of 0.35, and specificity of 0.84. Our gradient boosting machine model selected 8 variables to predict acute mortality with a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.71-0.82). The 2 cutoffs corresponded to sensitivities of 0.64 and 0.50 and specificities of 0.76 and 0.87, respectively. Conclusion: The USTMA Mortality Index was acceptable for predicting mortality due to acute iTTP in the USTMA registry, but not sensitive enough to rule out death. Identifying patients at high risk of iTTP-related mortality may help individualize care and ultimately improve iTTP survival outcomes. Further studies are needed to provide external validation. Our model is one of many recent examples where machine learning models may show promise in clinical prediction tools in healthcare.

When you think you should transfuse don't!

A 48-year-old female presented to the emergency department with severe fatigue. Admission laboratory test results were hemoglobin 6.6 g/dL, platelet count 287,000/µL, and white blood cell count 25,200/µL. Lactate dehydrogenase was elevated at 898 U/L, haptoglobin was markedly decreased (< 31 mg/dL), indirect bilirubin was elevated (5.3 mg/dL), and the absolute reticulocyte count was low at 0.0050/µL. A sample was sent to the immunohematology reference laboratory. The direct antiglobulin test immunoglobulin G was negative; C3 was 1+. All cells were reactive at immediate spin phase, indirect antiglobulin testing (IAT) with polyethylene glycol, with low ionic strength saline, neat, prewarm, and in the solid phase. All cells were nonreactive at IAT-ficin. Additional testing included a cold antibody titer that was 1:4096 and thermal amplitude studies demonstrating reactivity of 2+ at 37°C. These results were consistent with a clinically significant anti-Pr and cold agglutinin disease (CAD). Although rituximab is effective in autoimmune hemolytic anemia, this may take weeks. The patient was treated with pegcetacoplan, a pegylated peptide that targets C3 inhibiting hemolysis. The patient was discharged on day 29 with a hemoglobin of 8 g/dL. This is a report of one of the first patients successfully treated with pegcetacoplan for CAD.

Development and validation of a risk model for hospital-acquired venous thrombosis: the Medical Inpatients Thrombosis and Hemostasis study.

BACKGROUND: Regulatory organizations recommend assessing hospital-acquired (HA) venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk for medical inpatients. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a risk assessment model (RAM) for HA-VTE in medical inpatients using objective and assessable risk factors knowable at admission. METHODS: The development cohort included people admitted to medical services at the University of Vermont Medical Center (Burlington, Vermont) between 2010 and 2019, and the validation cohorts included people admitted to Hennepin County Medical Center (Minneapolis, Minnesota), University of Michigan Medical Center (Ann Arbor, Michigan), and Harris Health Systems (Houston, Texas). Individuals with VTE at admission, aged <18 years, and admitted for <1 midnight were excluded. We used a Bayesian penalized regression technique to select candidate HA-VTE risk factors for final inclusion in the RAM. RESULTS: The development cohort included 60 633 admissions and 227 HA-VTE, and the validation cohorts included 111 269 admissions and 651 HA-VTE. Seven HA-VTE risk factors with t statistics ≥1.5 were included in the RAM: history of VTE, low hemoglobin level, elevated creatinine level, active cancer, hyponatremia, increased red cell distribution width, and malnutrition. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration slope were 0.72 and 1.10, respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration slope were 0.70 and 0.93 at Hennepin County Medical Center, 0.70 and 0.87 at the University of Michigan Medical Center, and 0.71 and 1.00 at Harris Health Systems, respectively. The RAM performed well stratified by age, sex, and race. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a RAM for HA-VTE in medical inpatients. By quantifying risk, clinicians can determine the potential benefits of measures to reduce HA-VTE.

Five years of caplacizumab - lessons learned and remaining controversies in immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.

Immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP) is a rare hematologic disease caused by autoantibodies against ADAMTS-13 that trigger microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Therapeutic plasma exchange and glucocorticoids have been the mainstay of treatment for the past 30 years. In 2019, caplacizumab was approved as an addition to this regimen for the acute treatment of iTTP. Randomized controlled trials and real-world evidence have shown that caplacizumab reduces the time to platelet count normalization, refractoriness, and exacerbations of the disease, with an acceptable safety profile. In the past 5 years, there have been arguments against the upfront use of caplacizumab in all patients with iTTP, particularly related to the perceived lack of clinical benefit, safety concerns related to bleeding risk, and high costs. This perspective aimed to address these concerns in the context of the experience of expert centers that have used the drug for >5 years.

Use of patient-reported outcome measures in patients with venous thromboembolism: communication from the ISTH SSC Subcommittee on Predictive and Diagnostic Variables in Thrombotic Disease.

Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are patient-completed instruments that capture patient-perceived health status and well-being. PROMs measure disease impact and outcomes of care as reported by those who experience the disease. After pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis, patients may face a broad spectrum of complications and long-term sequelae beyond the usual quality-of-care indicators of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE), bleeding complications, and survival. The full impact of VTE on individual patients can only be captured by assessing all relevant health outcomes from the patient's perspective in addition to the traditionally recognized complications. Defining and measuring all important outcomes will help facilitate treatment tailored to the needs and preferences of patients and may improve health outcomes. The International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis Scientific and Standardization Committee Subcommittee on Predictive and Diagnostic Variables in Thrombotic Disease endorsed the International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement (ICHOM) VTE project on development of a standardized set of patient-centered outcome measures for patients with VTE. In this communication, the course and result of the project are summarized, and based on these findings, we propose recommendations for the use of PROMs during clinical follow-up of patients with VTE. We describe challenges to implementation of PROMs and explore barriers and enablers.

A systematic review of biomarkers among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 predictive of venous thromboembolism: A communication from the Predictive and Diagnostic Variables Scientific and Standardization Committee of the ISTH.

Background: Thrombosis is reported to occur more often among patients with COVID-19 than otherwise expected in the setting of viral pneumonia and sepsis. Systemic inflammatory biomarkers may be associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk. The ISTH subcommittee on Predictive and Diagnostic Variables in Thrombotic Disease aimed to report the evidence on prognostic biomarkers for VTE in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Methods: Using a standardized Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis methodology, we conducted a systematic literature review to identify studies reporting prognostic biomarkers for VTE among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Eligible studies included adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and reported the prognostic associations between any biomarker measured on admission, and the subsequent diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. Two authors reviewed titles and abstracts, and three authors extracted study data and performed review of bias. Results were displayed descriptively. Meta-analysis was not possible. Results: From the initial 196 identified studies, full-text review was performed for 72 studies. Admission D-dimer levels were associated with VTE during hospitalization in five studies, and elevated platelet count was associated with VTE during hospitalization in one study. The risk of bias ranged from low to high for included studies. Overall, there was a paucity of high-quality prognostic studies. Studies on other biomarkers did not meet the systematic review inclusion criteria. Conclusions: Admission D-dimer was associated with VTE diagnosis during hospitalization for COVID-19; however, prospective validation of this finding is needed to identify optimal D-dimer thresholds to guide VTE prophylaxis measures.

Race, rituximab, and relapse in TTP.

Immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP) is characterized by recurring episodes of thrombotic microangiopathy, causing ischemic organ impairment. Black patients are overrepresented in iTTP cohorts in the United States, but racial disparities in iTTP outcome and response to therapy have not been studied. Using the United States Thrombotic Microangiopathies Consortium iTTP Registry, we evaluated the impact of race on mortality and relapse-free survival (RFS) in confirmed iTTP in the United States from 1995 to 2020. We separately examined the impact of rituximab therapy and presentation with newly diagnosed (de novo) or relapsed iTTP on RFS by race. A total of 645 participants with 1308 iTTP episodes were available for analysis. Acute iTTP mortality did not differ by race. When all episodes of iTTP were included, Black race was associated with shorter RFS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.60; 95% CI, 1.16-2.21); the addition of rituximab to corticosteroids improved RFS in White (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.18-0.73) but not Black patients (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.71-1.31). In de novo iTTP, rituximab delayed relapse, but Black patients had shorter RFS than White patients, regardless of treatment. In relapsed iTTP, rituximab significantly improved RFS in White but not Black patients. Race affects overall relapse risk and response to rituximab in iTTP. Black patients may require closer monitoring, earlier retreatment, and alternative immunosuppression after rituximab treatment. How race, racism, and social determinants of health contribute to the disparity in relapse risk in iTTP deserves further study.

Management of bleeding risk in patients who receive anticoagulant therapy for venous thromboembolism: Communication from the ISTH SSC Subcommittee on Predictive and Diagnostic Variables in Thrombotic Disease.

Patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) require anticoagulant therapy to prevent recurrent VTE and death, which exposes them to an inherent increased risk of bleeding. Identification of patients at high risk of bleeding, and mitigating this risk, is an essential component of the immediate and long-term therapeutic management of VTE. The bleeding risk can be estimated by either implicit judgment, weighing individual predictors (clinical variables or biomarkers), or by risk prediction tools developed for this purpose. Management of bleeding risk in clinical practice is, however, far from standardized. International guidelines are contradictory and lack clear and consistent guidance on the optimal management of bleeding risk. This report of the ISTH subcommittee on Predictive and Diagnostic Variables in Thrombotic Disease summarizes the evidence on the prediction of bleeding in VTE patients. We systematically searched the literature and identified 34 original studies evaluating either predictors or risk prediction models for prediction of bleeding risk on anticoagulation in VTE patients. Based on this evidence, we provide recommendations for the standardized management of bleeding risk in VTE patients.

How targeted therapy disrupts the treatment paradigm for acquired TTP: the risks, benefits, and unknowns.

Insights into immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP) pathophysiology have led to novel targeted therapies. Immunomodulatory strategies target anti-ADAMTS13 antibodies: rituximab is effective in inducing responses in refractory/relapsed TTP and increasing relapse-free survival; caplacizumab targets the von Willebrand factor-platelet interaction to hasten platelet count recovery and reduce mortality and TTP-related ischemic events. Bortezomib and recombinant ADAMTS13 are under investigation. This review examines how targeted therapies are disrupting current treatment paradigms to improve outcomes of iTTP.

Novel therapies in thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.

Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) is characterized by microangiopathic hemolytic anemia and a consumptive thrombocytopenia, as a result of severe deficiency of ADAMTS13. The standard of care of the acute episode is treatment with plasma exchange and immunosuppression. After the acute episode is resolved, patients face a significant risk of relapse and long-term complications associated with significant morbidity and even mortality. Novel treatments have been under development and will be discussed in this review. Caplacizumab, a nanobody that blocks the interaction between VWF and platelets, has shown promising results in decreasing the time to recover from the acute events that will hopefully translate into long-term clinical benefit for patients. In addition, identifying biomarkers to allow us to better predict the risk for relapse and the development of these long-term complications in patients with TTP are a few of the challenges that require our attention moving forward.

The role of ADAMTS13 testing in the diagnosis and management of thrombotic microangiopathies and thrombosis.

ADAMTS13 (a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin type 1 motif, 13) is a metalloprotease responsible for cleavage of ultra-large von Willebrand factor (VWF) multimers. Severely deficient activity of the protease can trigger an acute episode of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP). Our understanding of the pathophysiology of TTP has allowed us to grasp the important role of ADAMTS13 in other thrombotic microangiopathies (TMAs) and thrombotic disorders, such as ischemic stroke and coronary artery disease. Through its action on VWF, ADAMTS13 can have prothrombotic and proinflammatory properties, not only when its activity is severely deficient, but also when it is only moderately low. Here, we will discuss the biology of ADAMTS13 and the different assays developed to evaluate its function in the context of TTP, in the acute setting and during follow-up. We will also discuss the latest evidence regarding the role of ADAMTS13 in other TMAs, stroke, and cardiovascular disease. This information will be useful for clinicians not only when evaluating patients who present with microangiopathic hemolytic anemia and thrombocytopenia, but also when making clinical decisions regarding the follow-up of patients with TTP.

None of the above: thrombotic microangiopathy beyond TTP and HUS.

Acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) are appropriately at the top of a clinician's differential when a patient presents with a clinical picture consistent with an acute thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA). However, there are several additional diagnoses that should be considered in patients presenting with an acute TMA, especially in patients with nondeficient ADAMTS13 (a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with a thrombospondin type 1 motif, member 13) activity (>10%). An increased awareness of drug-induced TMA is also essential because the key to their diagnosis more often is an appropriately detailed medical history to inquire about potential exposures. Widespread inflammation and endothelial damage are central in the pathogenesis of the TMA, with the treatment directed at the underlying disease if possible. TMA presentations in the critically ill, drug-induced TMA, cancer-associated TMA, and hematopoietic transplant-associated TMA (TA-TMA) and their specific treatment, where applicable, will be discussed in this manuscript. A complete assessment of all the potential etiologies for the TMA findings including acquired TTP will allow for a more accurate diagnosis and prevent prolonged or inappropriate treatment with plasma exchange therapy when it is less likely to be successful.

Cyclosporine or steroids as an adjunct to plasma exchange in the treatment of immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.

Although steroids are routinely used as an adjunct to plasma exchange (PEX) therapy in the treatment of immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP), limited data regarding their efficacy or effect on ADAMTS13 biomarkers are available. We report the results of a prospective, randomized study that compared the effectiveness of prednisone or cyclosporine (CSA) as adjuncts to PEX in the treatment of iTTP. A total of 26 of the planned 72 subjects were enrolled and treated from November 2007 until February 2014 before the study was halted after a planned interim analysis. Fourteen patients were randomly assigned to the prednisone arm, and 12 to the CSA arm of the study. One patient died in each arm of the study, and 2 patients in the prednisone arm of the study failed to achieve a response and crossed over to the CSA arm, leaving 11 patients in each arm of the study evaluable for the primary end point of exacerbation. One of the 11 prednisone-treated subjects (9%) suffered an exacerbation, whereas 3 of the 11 (27%) patients in the CSA arm suffered an exacerbation. Although there was no significant difference in the exacerbation rate, suppression of the anti-ADAMTS13 antibodies and improvement in ADAMTS13 activity in the first month after stopping PEX were significantly better in the prednisone-treated subjects. Side effects were manageable and comparable in both arms of the study. These data demonstrate the superiority of prednisone over CSA as an adjunct to PEX in the suppression of the anti-ADAMTS13 antibodies and improvement in ADAMTS13 activity. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00713193.